Three rule changes. 780 players analysed. A clear pattern the big sites are ignoring.
The AFL’s 2026 tweaks look minor on paper. They’re not. We’ve run every player through our impact model and the results are striking — particularly for one position group that nobody’s talking about yet.
The Model
We scored every player across three impact categories on a -10 to +10 scale:
- Ruck & Stoppage Impact: How the centre ball-up change, relaxed ruck nominations, and fewer boundary throw-ins affect scoring
- Game Flow Impact: How faster play, the last-disposal-out-of-bounds rule, and fewer stoppages affect disposal and marking opportunities
- Interchange Removal Impact: How the elimination of the substitute affects scoring based on age, fitness, and playing style
Combined score ranges from -30 (devastated) to +30 (massive beneficiary). The data tells a clear story — and it’s not the one you’re hearing on the podcasts.
Change 1: Ruck Contest & Stoppage Reforms
What’s changed:
- Centre bounce abolished → replaced by ball-up (rucks can’t cross centre line before engaging)
- Umpires won’t wait for rucks to arrive before restarting play
- Last disposal out of bounds = free kick (eliminates ~3 boundary throw-ins per game)
The net effect: Fewer stoppages = fewer hitouts = a structural nerf to traditional rucks. We’ve been chatting to a few ruck coaches about this, and the consensus is it’s bigger than people think. One bloke at a top-four club reckons it’s worth 8-12 hitouts per game across the competition.
Ruck Winners
| Player | Team | Age | SC Avg | Why They Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom De Koning | St Kilda | 26 | 96.9 | Athletic jumper who thrives in open contests. Marks (3.3/gm) diversify his scoring away from hitout dependency. |
| Tim English | Bulldogs | 28 | 111.0 | The dual-threat. Averages 6.1 marks and 0.6 goals — his scoring isn’t hitout-dependent. New rules barely touch him. |
| Luke Jackson | Fremantle | 24 | 113.0 | Forward-ruck hybrid. His value comes from marks and goals, not hitout volume. Faster game flow feeds his athleticism. |
| Tristan Xerri | North Melbourne | 26 | 127.0 | Elite scorer at 127 avg. Even a 5% hitout reduction barely dents him — his marking and clearance work sustains his ceiling. |
Ruck Losers
| Player | Team | Age | SC Avg | Why They Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrod Witts | Gold Coast | 33 | 105.0 | Age + hitout dependency. Fewer stoppages directly reduce his primary scoring source. Could drop 5-8 points on average. |
| Max Gawn | Melbourne | 34 | 127.4 | Still elite, but at 34 with the interchange removal stacked on top, his workload becomes unsustainable. Biggest risk of any premium ruck. |
| Rhys Stanley | Geelong | 35 | 65.3 | Veteran backup ruck. Fewer stoppages makes his already limited role even less viable. |
| Brodie Grundy | Sydney | 31 | 125.3 | Premium price ($721,900) with age-related risk. Still a gun, but the rules nudge the risk-reward unfavourably at his price point. |
The takeaway: If your ruck’s scoring is hitout-dependent, you’ve got a problem. De Koning and Jackson score through marks and goals — they barely notice the change. Gawn and Grundy are still elite, but the risk premium just went up at their price points.
Change 2: Game Flow Rules
What’s changed:
- Last disposal out of bounds = free kick (between the 50m arcs)
- Faster restarts across the board
- Net effect: more continuous play, more disposals, more open-field marking
Who benefits: Players who accumulate in open play. Specifically:
The Big Winners: Young Intercept Defenders
This is the finding that made us sit up. Young intercept defenders score +11 on our total impact scale — the highest of any player archetype. And almost nobody is talking about it.
| Player | Team | Age | SC Avg | SC Price | Total Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | St Kilda | 22 | 115.0 | $612,500 | +11 |
| Max Holmes | Geelong | 23 | 110.9 | $560,900 | +11 |
| Harry Sheezel | North Melbourne | 21 | 107.3 | $596,600 | +11 |
| Darcy Wilmot | Brisbane | 22 | 86.4 | $498,300 | +11 |
| Archie Roberts | Essendon | 20 | 83.7 | $420,300 | +11 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | Brisbane | 21 | 87.7 | $448,400 | +11 |
| Jake Bowey | Melbourne | 23 | 92.4 | $435,500 | +11 |
Why? Intercept defenders thrive in open, flowing games. More continuous play = more long kicks into the defensive 50 = more intercept marks. They’re young enough to benefit from interchange removal AND skilled enough to capitalise on the faster game flow.
Wanganeen-Milera at 22 years old averaging 115.0 is the poster child for these rule changes. He’s the number one beneficiary in our entire 780-player analysis.
High-Disposal Midfielders
Players already averaging 25+ disposals get a tailwind from more continuous play:
| Player | Team | Age | SC Avg | Flow Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finn Callaghan | GWS | 22 | 111.9 | +4 |
| Will Ashcroft | Brisbane | 21 | 100.7 | +4 |
| Nick Daicos | Collingwood | 23 | 116.1 | +4 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | Fremantle | 26 | 113.9 | +3 |
Key Forwards Get More Supply
Faster ball movement means more entries inside 50. Key forwards who rely on marking and goals benefit:
| Player | Team | Age | Goals/Gm | Flow Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darcy | Bulldogs | 22 | 2.8 | +4 |
| Jesse Hogan | GWS | 30 | 3.1 | +4 |
| Charlie Curnow | Sydney | 28 | 2.9 | +4 |
Change 3: Interchange & Substitute Removal
What’s changed: The medical substitute is eliminated. Players must complete games or be replaced permanently. Effectively, everyone plays more minutes.
Impact formula: More time on ground = more scoring opportunity for fit players, more fatigue for older ones.
Age Is Everything
Our analysis shows a stark divide at age 30:
Under 25 + averaging 60+ SC: Average impact of +5.2 (more game time = more scoring)
Over 32: Average impact of -5.8 (fatigue compounds, can’t be managed off the bench)
The Veterans to Avoid
| Player | Team | Age | SC Avg | SC Price | Total Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Darling | North Melbourne | 33 | 60.0 | $336,400 | -8 |
| Jake Melksham | Melbourne | 34 | 63.2 | $291,800 | -8 |
| Brody Mihocek | Melbourne | 33 | 66.5 | $335,700 | -8 |
| Mason Cox | Fremantle | 34 | 41.9 | $212,900 | -8 |
| Jamie Cripps | West Coast | 33 | 60.9 | $269,600 | -8 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | Geelong | 35 | 80.5 | $435,500 | -5 |
Dangerfield is the one that’ll cause arguments. Still averaging 80.5 and still capable of a 130 on any given Saturday. But at 35 with no interchange safety net, how many times does he fade out in the fourth quarter and cost you 15 points? At $435K, you can get Ashcroft for $40K more with a decade less wear on the body.
The Youth Dividend
Young midfielders with established averages get a double benefit — more time on ground PLUS the fitness to exploit it:
| Player | Team | Age | SC Avg | Sub Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finn Callaghan | GWS | 22 | 111.9 | +6 |
| Will Ashcroft | Brisbane | 21 | 100.7 | +6 |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | St Kilda | 22 | 115.0 | +6 |
| Nick Daicos | Collingwood | 23 | 116.1 | +6 |
| Harry Sheezel | North Melbourne | 21 | 107.3 | +6 |
The Overall Rule Change Leaderboard
Top 10 Beneficiaries (Combined Impact Score)
| Rank | Player | Team | Position | Age | SC Avg | Price | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | St Kilda | DEF | 22 | 115.0 | $612,500 | +11 |
| 2 | Max Holmes | Geelong | DEF | 23 | 110.9 | $560,900 | +11 |
| 3 | Harry Sheezel | North Melbourne | DEF | 21 | 107.3 | $596,600 | +11 |
| 4 | Darcy Wilmot | Brisbane | DEF | 22 | 86.4 | $498,300 | +11 |
| 5 | Jake Bowey | Melbourne | DEF | 23 | 92.4 | $435,500 | +11 |
| 6 | Jaspa Fletcher | Brisbane | DEF | 21 | 87.7 | $448,400 | +11 |
| 7 | Archie Roberts | Essendon | DEF | 20 | 83.7 | $420,300 | +11 |
| 8 | Finn Callaghan | GWS | MID | 22 | 111.9 | $603,300 | +10 |
| 9 | Will Ashcroft | Brisbane | MID | 21 | 100.7 | $474,600 | +10 |
| 10 | Nick Daicos | Collingwood | MID | 23 | 116.1 | $605,200 | +10 |
Bottom 5 (Most Negatively Affected)
| Rank | Player | Team | Position | Age | SC Avg | Price | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 776 | Jamie Cripps | West Coast | FWD | 33 | 60.9 | $269,600 | -8 |
| 777 | Mason Cox | Fremantle | FWD | 34 | 41.9 | $212,900 | -8 |
| 778 | Brody Mihocek | Melbourne | FWD | 33 | 66.5 | $335,700 | -8 |
| 779 | Jake Melksham | Melbourne | FWD | 34 | 63.2 | $291,800 | -8 |
| 780 | Jack Darling | North Melbourne | FWD | 33 | 60.0 | $336,400 | -8 |
The Strategy: How to Build for 2026’s Rules
1. Stack young defenders. The data is screaming it. Wanganeen-Milera, Holmes, Sheezel, Wilmot — these are your D1-D4. They benefit from ALL THREE rule changes.
2. Youth over experience in midfield. Callaghan, Ashcroft, Daicos over Dangerfield, Coniglio, Brad Hill. The youth dividend is real and compounding.
3. Choose your rucks carefully. De Koning and Jackson over Gawn and Grundy if you want to dodge the stoppage reduction. Or pay up for Xerri who’s too good to be meaningfully affected.
4. Avoid veterans over 32. The interchange removal is a structural nerf to older players. Don’t pay premium prices for declining output.
5. Forward-ruck hybrids are gold. Luke Jackson, Tim English — players who score through multiple avenues are insulated from any single rule change.
Analysis based on our rule change impact model applied to all 780 AFL-listed players. Raw data sourced from FootyWire. Model methodology available on request. Last updated February 12, 2026.